Outsmarting the Outcome Bias
“Arrrgh, I know how to solve this problem, and I can get a better result!” is what many of us scream inside our heads during staff meetings at least once a week. And yet, we remain silent instead. Why?
The Outcome Bias, and the fear of it, is a powerful degrader of quality innovation and decision making in almost any organization. There are, however, tools you can implement to avoid it. When you do, you present your best self, and contribute to the success of the organization of which you are a part.
Defining the Outcome Bias:
Outcome Bias is the tendency to judge the quality of a decision by presuming its eventual outcome, instead of based on its merit at the time it was made. Meaning, we often assign value to the quality of a decision based on outcomes that might have been influenced by external, and unrelated, factors; factors that might have altered the expected outcome, for better or worse. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias)
Examples in real life:
1. A divorced couple may state that their choice of partner was the worst decision of their lives, despite proclaiming the opposite just before, and shortly after, the wedding.
2. It is customary to use the first 6 months of employment as a probationary period. This implies that, even though the hiring process and eventual decision to hire a specific candidate were based on solid information, it may later be revealed that the choice was a poor one.
3. My daughter bought a headset, after performing extensive research. It broke shortly after purchasing it. Was her decision to choose this device wrong? Her selection process was appropriate; it’s just that some important information was not available during that period.
The Fear that stems from the Outcome Bias:
Organizations tend to judge staff purely based on outcomes. Meaning, results are what actually determine the value of a person’s decision-making. This creates fear among employees, causing them to conform to an extremely safe work plan out of concern that any deviation from the status quo may lead to an imperfect result.
The Outcome Bias is one of a set of cognitive biases that affect us without our realization. As explained above, one manifestation of this bias is when employees/members of an organization are afraid to suggest new ideas, because “everything goes to personal responsibility”. They prefer playing it safe over pushing the envelope.
When working with organizations, more than once I have noticed that staff withholds new ideas. By creating a supportive environment in which “there are no bad ideas”, however, they start sharing these wonderfully crazy ideas. Once I debrief the group, staff explain that they were initially reserved because they did not wish to be perceived as foolish when the outcomes were not as hoped. Paraphrasing on the words of Yogi Berra, “We are making too many of the wrong mistakes”.
How to Make a Lot of Good Mistakes:
Proper (!) Brainstorming
Yes, this old method is still alive and kicking, and its silliness can be the antidote to harsh criticism. The most productive discussions should be fun, engaging, and stimulating.
If you want assistance on achieving a productive brainstorming session, talk to me. We’ll have fun!
Exploration Framework
A formalized system, my own creation, for proper assessment of ideas and suggestions. It will ensure a structured review process, eliminate blame, and support the collective valuation.
a. Research — The systematic investigation and study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions.
b. Debate — A formal non-negative discussion on a topic in an assembly, in which opposing arguments are put forward.
c. Commit — A pledge (by a person or an organization) to a certain course or policy
d. Pause — A temporary stop in a specific action, to reflect and process.
e. OKR, Objectives and Key Results — A framework for defining and tracking objectives and their outcomes.
i. Objective — A concrete, action-oriented well-defined thing/goal that needs to be achieved;
ii. Key Results — The specific, measurable, and verifiable steps that will meet the objective.
f. KPI, Key Performance Indicators — a quantifiable measure used to evaluate the success of an organization, employee, etc. in meeting objectives for performance.
(Definition were done with the help of Google’s search)
New ideas are the enzymes in an organization’s DNA. The overhead they add can be channeled to bring value to the business, enhance its mission, and excite staff members. Definitely a worthwhile expense.
I write to share my experiences and insights and to encourage knowledge sharing. You are invited to share your thoughts and insights in the comments section. As a consultant, I assist organizations and businesses in implementing lean, nimble and efficient technology solutions. Please feel free to reach out to me if you want to apply these tools in your organization, or have me as a guest speaker.If you enjoyed this article, please share it forward. It lets me know it was of value to you in some way and encourages me to find time to write more. It also helps others to learn about it, thus making our flock one person stronger and more prosperous.
Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/outsmarting-outcome-bias-tzach-asher/
